The Distribution Dynamics of Human Development in Mexico 1990-2010

Abstract

Based on census data linked to household surveys, we analyze the univariate and joint distribution of income, health and education at the municipality level in Mexico from 1990 to 2010 using Gaussian mixture models. The univariate analysis finds an emergence of a low-income cluster in 2000, which disappears again by 2010. Our trivariate estimation shows an education-led human development convergence over time while dynamics are mainly affected by fluctuations in health and income. Changes in development clusters have a clear spatial pattern and are closely related to the relative size of the agricultural sector and the proportion of indigenous population groups.