Spatial prediction of forest stand variables

Abstract

This study aims at the development of a model to predict forest stand variables in management units (stands) from sample plot inventory data. For this purpose we apply a non-parametric most similar neighbour (MSN) approach. The study area is the municipal forest of Waldkirch, 13 km north-east of Freiburg, Germany, which comprises 328 forest stands and 834 sample plots. Low-resolution laser scanning data, classification variables as well rough estimations from the forest management planning serve as auxiliary variables. In order to avoid common problems of k-NN-approaches caused by asymmetry at the boundaries of the regression spaces and distorted distributions, forest stands are tessellated into subunits with an area approximately equivalent to an inventory sample plot. For each subunit only the one nearest neighbour is consulted. Predictions for target variables in stands are obtained by averaging the predictions for all subunits. After formulating a random parameter model with variance components, we calibrate the prior predictions by means of sample plot data within the forest stands via BLUPs (best linear unbiased predictors). Based on bootstrap simulations, prediction errors for most management units finally prove to be smaller than the design-based sampling error of the mean. The calibration approach shows superiority compared with pure non-parametric MSN predictions.