Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
2017 | journal article. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.
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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Zemp, D. C.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Barbosa, H. M. J.; Hirota, M.; Montade, V.; Sampaio, G. & Staal, A. et al. (2017)
Nature Communications, 8 art. 14681. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
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Details
- Authors
- Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Rammig, Anja
- Abstract
- Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
- Issue Date
- 2017
- Status
- published
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- ISSN
- 2041-1723