Quantifying the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues with Impulse Response Functions

2022 | journal article; research paper. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.

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​Quantifying the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues with Impulse Response Functions​
Fuchs, J. M. ; v. Bodelschwingh, H.; Lange, A.; Paul, C.   & Husmann, K. ​ (2022) 
Forest Policy and Economics140 art. 102738​.​ DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102738 


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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0


Fuchs, Jasper Maximilian ; v. Bodelschwingh, Hilmar; Lange, Alexander; Paul, Carola ; Husmann, Kai 
Forest disturbances in Europe are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity. Assessing their economic consequences is required to identify feasible adaptation strategies. Such economic calculations depend on estimates for the reduction in revenues after disturbance events. These losses can be caused by both a lower wood quality as well as an oversupply on the wood markets. Despite its importance, data-driven approaches to quantify the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues in Central Europe are rare. We applied econometric time series analysis with Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models to harvest and sales data from Hesse, Germany. Additionally, we derived estimates for reductions in wood revenues for integration in bioeconomic simulation models. Our analyses indicate that the observed losses in wood revenues for spruce after disturbances are mainly due to an oversupply on the wood markets, rather than a loss in wood quality. In addition, the results suggest that calamities of transregional extent or multiple disturbances in subsequent years are likely to reduce wood revenues beyond the assumptions often used in bioeconomic simulation models. Although our results for beech were more ambiguous, they indicate that losses in revenues for beech after disturbances in the past were mainly due to a reduced wood quality. Our study highlights the importance of taking a differentiated view on the consequences of disturbances on wood revenues, considering their spatial extent and species-specific mechanisms.
Issue Date
Forest Policy and Economics 
Potential of functional diversity for increasing the disturbance resiliency of forests and forest-based socio-ecological systems (FUNPOTENTIAL) 
Economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on forestry and mitigation potentials through robust management strategies 
Fakultät für Forstwissenschaften und Waldökologie ; Burckhardt-Institut ; Abteilung Forstökonomie und nachhaltige Landnutzungsplanung ; Zentrum für Biodiversität und Nachhaltige Landnutzung 
Working Group
Forstliche Ökonometrie 
Timber price fluctuation; Wood market; Wood assortments; Impulse Response Function; Disturbance economics; Extreme events



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