The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
2021-01-15 | journal article. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.
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The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
Contreras, S.; Dehning, J.; Loidolt, M.; Zierenberg, J.; Spitzner, F. P.; Urrea-Quintero, J. H. & Mohr, S. B. et al. (2021)
Nature Communications, 12(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8
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Details
- Authors
- Contreras, Sebastian; Dehning, Jonas; Loidolt, Matthias; Zierenberg, Johannes; Spitzner, F. Paul; Urrea-Quintero, Jorge H.; Mohr, Sebastian B.; Wilczek, Michael; Wibral, Michael; Priesemann, Viola
- Abstract
- Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to ”hidden" infection chains. Here, we study a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number RHt of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.
- Issue Date
- 15-January-2021
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- eISSN
- 2041-1723
- Language
- English
- Sponsor
- Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004189
Ministry of Education, Government of Chile | Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002848
Volkswagen Foundation (VolkswagenStiftung) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
Joachim Herz Stiftung (Joachim Herz Foundation) https://doi.org/10.13039/100008662