Strategic coordination in forecasting – An experimental study
2015 | Zeitschriftenartikel
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Dokumente & Medien
Details
- Autor(en)
- Meub, Lukas ; Proeger, Till ; Bizer, Kilian ; Spiwoks, Markus
- Zusammenfassung
- While reputational herding has been shown to contribute to poor economic forecasting, the underlying behavioral mechanisms have not yet been empirically investigated. We run a forecasting experiment with contradictory incentives for accuracy and coordination, finding subjects’ forecasts to be inaccurate and driven by the coordination motive. Coordination is achieved through the salient, risk-dominant equilibrium, i.e. merely forecasting the current values. Subjects succeeding in coordinating earn significantly more than those striving for accuracy. Our results emphasize that reputational herding should be considered as a driving force for persistently poor prediction accuracy and systematically biased forecasts towards consensus values.
- Erscheinungsdatum
- 2015
- Zeitschrift
- Finance Research Letters
- Sprache
- Englisch