Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response
2017 | journal article. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.
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Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 2. Geomagnetic response
Savani, N. P.; Richardson, I. G.; Pulkkinen, A.; Mays, M. L.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Vourlidas, A. & Szabo, A. et al. (2017)
Space Weather, 15(2) pp. 441-461. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001458
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Details
- Title Variant(s)
- B Z VALIDATION
- Authors
- Savani, N. P.; Richardson, I. G.; Pulkkinen, A.; Mays, M. L.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T.; Vourlidas, Angelos; Szabo, Anna; Thompson, B. Taylor; Bothmer, Volker
- Abstract
- This is a companion to Savani et al. (2015) that discussed how a first-order prediction of the internal magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be made from observations of its initial state at the Sun for space weather forecasting purposes (Bothmer-Schwenn scheme (BSS) model). For eight CME events, we investigate how uncertainties in their predicted magnetic structure influence predictions of the geomagnetic activity. We use an empirical relationship between the solar wind plasma drivers and Kp index together with the inferred magnetic vectors, to make a prediction of the time variation of Kp (Kp((BSS))). We find a 2 sigma uncertainty range on the magnetic field magnitude (
- Issue Date
- 2017
- Status
- published
- Publisher
- Amer Geophysical Union
- Journal
- Space Weather
- ISSN
- 1542-7390
- ISSN
- 1542-7390
- Language
- English
