The Sequence of Mediation Efforts in the Conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army

Abstract

What impact have different mediation outcomes had on subsequent mediation onset and success in the conflict between the government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)? Intrastate conflicts commonly see more than one mediation effort. These efforts can result in different outcomes. Assessing the impact of different mediation outcomes on subsequent mediation efforts in the conflict between the governments of Uganda and the LRA, it becomes apparent that reneged agreements have aggravated subsequent mediation efforts, while mediation ending without an agreement and previous mediation success do not reduce the chances of subsequent mediation onset (and success). This suggests that short-lived agreements are not only likely to lead to renewed conflict, but also make further mediation efforts more difficult.