Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
2017 | journal article. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.
Jump to: Cite & Linked | Documents & Media | Details | Version history
Cite this publication
Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A. ... Rammig, A. (2017). Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications, 8, Article 14681. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
Documents & Media
Details
- Authors
- Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Rammig, Anja
- Abstract
- Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
- Issue Date
- 2017
- Status
- published
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- ISSN
- 2041-1723